PUTIN WINS A BIG ONE
by Fred Edwards
Aug. 15, 2008

In 1956, revolutionaries in Hungary revolted against their Soviet rulers and leader Imre Nagy appealed to the United Nations and the United States for protection. The United States and the other Western powers were involved in the Suez crisis and simply weren’t prepared to risk nuclear war over a revolt in one of the Soviet Union’s satellites, so they left the freedom-seeking Hungarians on their own. Soviet armored divisions crossed into Hungary and eliminated hopes of freedom for another generation.

In 1968, the Czechoslovakians launched a drive to lessen the yoke of Soviet Communism, which — as in 1956 — would have spread unrest to the other satellites. Known as the “Prague Spring of 1968,” it turned into a frigid winter when Soviet tanks rolled into Prague and shut down the movement.

The Soviet Union eventually imploded and Russia became a separate power, and not even a “superpower.” Then, in August 2008, Russia invaded the former Soviet satellite, Georgia, which had embraced democracy and the West. As the saying goes, “the more things change, the more they remain the same.” Here’s why:

* In each case, a dictator directed action against a nation committed to democratic rule.

* In each case, the dictator acted from geopolitical motives rather than pure ideological grounds.

* In each case, the dictator correctly calculated the inability, or unwillingness, of democratic governments to respond.

Ostensibly, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin began the Georgian invasion to aid separatists in the Republic of South Ossetia, a region in the South Caucasus that declared its independence from Georgia in the early 1990s. According to some estimates, in 2007 the population comprised 45,000 ethnic Ossetians and 17,500 ethnic Georgians. But, by the time Russia attacked, more than 70 percent of the South Ossetians who hadn’t fled South Ossetia held Russian citizenship. How can this be? Because Russia had been issuing citizenship papers and passports to virtually all adult Ossetians willing to remain.

Russian warships also landed troops in Abkhazia, another separatist region, while armored columns, supported by air attacks, cut Georgia in half. Even after a cease-fire agreement between Russia and Georgia, a loophole in the agreement allowed Russian forces to take “security” actions as they saw fit, which they did.

So what does Putin Want?

* He intends to annex both South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

* He wants the United States to stop training and equipping the Georgian army, 2,000 of which were serving in Iraq when he ordered the invasion.

* He expects to replace Georgia President Mikheil Saakashvili with a puppet ruler in order to eliminate a Georgian government that is pro-West.

* He hopes to control the strategic BTC oil pipeline that bypasses Russia by running from Baku, Azerbaijan, through Tbilisi, Georgia, to Ceyhan, a port on the southeastern Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

* He plans to show the world that, for the first time since the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia is a relevant power because it has accomplished a decisive military action.

* He is warning the other former Soviet satellites that seek democracy — beginning with Ukraine — that they had better not look to the West for support because they cannot count on “the world’s only superpower” to protect them.

And where does the United States stand?

In the throes of a diplomatic debacle. During the early days of the war, President Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice insisted that the United States would take no military action. This of course was what Putin was counting on when he invaded. On August 13, after the cease fire didn’t bring a cease fire, the White House sent American troops to Georgia to oversee a “vigorous and ongoing” humanitarian mission. By then, Russian soldiers had moved into two strategic Georgian cities. Bush and Georgian officials called it a violation of the cease-fire, and Bush demanded that Russia withdraw its forces or risk losing its place in “the diplomatic, political, economic and security structures of the 21st century,” whatever that means in diplomat-speak.

And what about Georgia?

Before the cease fire was signed, President Saakashvili wrote “. . . above all, it is a war over the kind of Europe our children will live in. Let us be frank: This conflict is about the future of freedom in Europe.” After the cease fire was signed, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., presumptive Republican nominee for president, wrote in an op-ed for The Wall Street Journal:

“The Georgian people have suffered before, and they suffer today. We must help them through this tragedy, and they should know that the thoughts, prayers and support of the American people are with them. This small democracy, far away from our shores, is an inspiration to all those who cherish our deepest ideals. As I told President Saakashvili on the day the cease-fire was declared, today we are all Georgians. We mustn’t forget it.”

For now, Putin has won a big one.

Letters to the editor:

From RB — Fred: Good summary of the Georgia debacle. Very incisive. I hope that Bush listens to his Secretary of Defense and maintains his patience. The last thing the United States needs at this time is another war!

From PD — Fred: I find your latest publication interesting and accurate. I think there are a couple of things we have to face up to. One, Russia is a nuclear and military power with a leader who yearns for the good old days of KGB rule. Combine that with the traditional xenophobic Russian attitude and drawing the line with him is a real challenge. Second, Russia is the most important source of non-Islamic oil on the world market. While it would not be rational for the Russians to cut off supply and deprive themselves of currency to finance their adventures, dictators don’t always act rationally. (If Saddam Hussein had permitted unimpeded access to UN inspectors he would still be alive and in charge of Iraq). The United States must not lead countries like Georgia and the Ukraine to think we will go to war for them. We cannot. We need to exploit our own oil resources until alternative energy becomes a reality and not just a politician’s dream.
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The content of Crosshairs - Military Matters in Review may be copied or retransmitted for information purposes, but may not be used for any commercial purpose without my written permission. Please credit the source as “Crosshairs - Military Matters in Review” at www.milmat.net by Fred Edwards.

Fred Edwards is a military columnist and journalist. He has contributed articles to more than two dozen periodicals and has written six books. His most recent are The Buffie Brigade and The Bridges of Vietnam: From the Journals of a U.S. Marine Intelligence Officer.

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